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Will Your Money Last? Run Your Retirement 5,000 Times.

Every simulated year is a real U.S. market year from 1871 to 2022 with actual S&P stock returns, 10-year Treasury yields, and CPI inflation. Move any slider to watch 5,000 possible futures redraw.

90% Confidence Threshold

Safe Spending Benchmark

Binary search solves for the exact annual withdrawal amount that survives at least 90% of all historical market futures without capital exhaustion.

Sequence of Returns Risk

Reverse Compounding Defense

Experiencing severe market crashes (1929, 1973, or 2008) in early retirement forces forced liquidation of depressed shares, permanently impairing portfolio longevity.

Real Historical Data

152-Year Shiller Dataset

Draws from 152 years of real U.S. stock, bond, and CPI data (1871–2022). Every simulated year happened in history; only the sequence order is randomized.

The Carl Brent Anthony 1.5% Risk Cap in Decumulation

In active institutional trading, Carl Brent Anthony mandates a strict 1.5% risk cap per trade and weekly sovereign sweeping. For long-term capital preservation and retirement decumulation, this doctrine translates to:

  • Cash Reserve Insulation: Maintaining 24 to 36 months of living expenses in short-term instruments to avoid selling equities during cyclical market bottoms.
  • Dynamic Spending Guardrails: Trimming discretionary withdrawals by 10% during prolonged bear markets, boosting lifelong portfolio survival odds by +7% to +10%.
  • Asset Allocation Rebalancing: Systematic rebalancing between equities and bonds to take profits into overextended bull regimes and buy during severe dislocations.
  • Social Security Reserve Stress-Testing: Modeling the 2032 OASDI reserve depletion scenario (78% payable benefit) to ensure resilience against legislative uncertainty.